Navigating the Messy Middle: Fleet Management in Transition

NACFE's Decision Tree for navigating the vehicle powertrain selection process, which considers multiple data points to determine the best choice for the job. With more fleets adding BEV, hybrids, CNG and Hydrogen, technician training is being factored into planning, to effectively support these vehicles as they become operational.

The “messy middle” is a term closely associated with NACFE. It describes the period between today’s diesel-dominant market and a zero-emission freight future. NACFE’s core point is simple: This is not a transition where one new technology cleanly replaces an old one. Instead, fleets must evaluate multiple energy pathways, vehicle platforms, and operational realities simultaneously.

Understanding the Messy Middle

While the term emerged in the trucking segment, it resonates broadly. Transit agencies, school transportation departments, municipal fleets, and private operators face a complicated planning environment. This includes evolving regulations, new infrastructure requirements, more powertrain options, and a growing need to match vehicle strategy to actual operating conditions.

The management challenge now extends well beyond long-haul freight. The smartest fleets are not trying to declare one winner. They are building a better decision-making framework. NACFE’s 2026 Messy Middle Operations Report concludes that no single powertrain is universally superior. Fleets benefit from matching technology to duty cycles, conducting route-specific analysis, and investing in operational factors such as driver training and maintenance capability.

Matching Technology to the Job

Smart fleets match technology to the job. NACFE’s data shows that duty cycle and terrain are stronger predictors of efficiency variation than powertrain technology alone. A fleet may find renewable diesel attractive in one lane, CNG or RNG in another, and battery-electric in a return-to-base application. Hydrogen may only be viable in limited cases where infrastructure and use cases align.

Industry leaders emphasize this transition. In an ACT News interview, Mike Roeth noted that fleets pursue multiple technology pathways rather than a single solution. Duty cycles and infrastructure availability shape decisions. Saia’s Matt Copot described the decision process plainly: fleets need to understand where a technology fits and how the diesel equivalent performs. This is disciplined fleet planning.

Relying on Route-Level Analysis

Smart fleets rely heavily on route-level and corridor-level analysis. NACFE’s 2026 report states that route-specific analysis should precede deployment decisions. This is especially true for technologies sensitive to terrain and infrastructure. The report evaluates five dimensions before technology commitment: route and corridor, infrastructure, operational readiness, economics, and sustainability.

Broad claims about what a vehicle “can do” often break down once grade, weather, payload, charging access, dispatch variability, and hours-of-service realities enter the picture. Understanding these factors is crucial for effective fleet management.

Solving Infrastructure Challenges Early

Infrastructure shapes deployment viability as much as vehicle capability. NACFE’s research highlights that fleets navigating technology transitions benefit from realistic infrastructure evaluations. This includes current availability, development timelines, and backup options. Strong deployments align technology choice with lanes and facilities they can support.

Using Real-World Operating Data

Smart fleets use real-world operating data instead of relying too heavily on manufacturer claims or abstract TCO models. NACFE’s report indicates that actual operational performance diverges across all technologies based on terrain, duty cycle, payload, and driver behavior. Validated operational data serves as a better guide than projections or specs alone.

The messy middle is full of conflicting truths. A vehicle may be technically capable but poorly matched to a route. A fuel may offer emissions benefits but create operational friction if fueling is not aligned. Smart fleets reduce risk by insisting on operational evidence before scaling.

Prioritizing Workforce Readiness

One of the most overlooked aspects is treating workforce readiness as part of the transition. NACFE’s report states that human factors influence outcomes across all technologies. Driver training, maintenance discipline, and dispatch strategy are critical performance drivers. Investing in these areas is essential as fleets navigate technology transitions.

Not every fleet case study leads with technician training. Some emphasize infrastructure, while others focus on data. However, where the transition becomes operationally complex, workforce readiness tends to move to the foreground. For instance, Kleysen Group’s experience in natural gas highlights the importance of training in adapting to new fuel sources.

Public Sector Fleet Planning

The same pattern appears in public-sector fleet planning. Under current FTA competitive bus guidance, applicants proposing zero-emission vehicle projects must dedicate 5% of the federal amount to workforce development and training unless they certify that less is needed. This indicates that workforce readiness is increasingly treated as part of serious deployment planning.

Conclusion: Embracing the Messy Middle

For fleet managers and transportation directors, the most important takeaway is that the messy middle is not a sign of a lack of direction. It signifies a more demanding phase of decision-making. The fleets handling it best are not waiting for perfect certainty. They are using data to match powertrains to duty cycles, planning infrastructure before scaling, and strengthening operational capabilities.

If your fleet is evaluating EVs, charging infrastructure, CNG or RNG, renewable fuels, hydrogen, or other advanced vehicle technologies, WTA can help your technicians build the skills needed to support those systems safely and effectively. Explore WTA training programs or contact us to discuss training at your facility.

Sources & Further Reading

• North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE), “The Messy Middle” Operations Report

  Download the report from NACFE

• ACT News, “ACT News Talks Tech: NACFE’s Mike Roeth”

  Watch the interview

• Run on Less, Kleysen Group Participant Profile

  Watch the video

• Federal Transit Administration, Low or No Emission Grant Program

  Visit the program page